Wednesday, November 15, 2006

What does the future look like?

My key motivation for blogging about the Islamist threat is the bleak future I foresee. A number of extremely radical people, not to confuse with humans, are planning and working for the eradication of the people in the West and my culture. My neighbors, friends and even family is at risk. Life, as we know it, is at stake.


The Islamist threat
The radicals are all Muslim. That is not to say that all Muslims are terrorists but practically all terrorists are Muslim.

The percentage of radicals is difficult to ascertain. I believe it is relatively high. In the UK a poll indicate one in ten thought the London Subway bombings were OK. One in ten would probably not actively participate in terrorists act, but I think at least 1% of the one tenth would. This would amount to 1 in 1000. And here we are talking about a group of Muslims who are more westernized than most. If you look at Palestinians on the West Bank the percentage is much higher.

To corroborate the numbers I find the article about MI5 surveillance in the UK valuable.

The head of MI5 informs that they are tracking 1,600 fanatics from 200 al-Qaeda cells. And many more are believed to exist. I have heard there are 3,000,000 Muslims more or less in the UK. One potential terrorist out of each thousand would correspond to 3000. Are we really to believe that the MI5 actually have discovered more than 50% of all potential terrorists? I think not. The real number is probably much higher.

But let us just use the conservative estimate of 1 potential terrorist in each 1000 Muslims and the 1 sympathizer in each 10 Muslims for illustrative purposes.

Out of a total Muslim population of 1,5 billion, one and a half million are either terrorists or are ready to become terrorist - and a whopping 150 million are sympathizers and will to a large degree indirectly give support, i.e. politically and economically.

1,500,000 out of a world wide population of 6 billion may not seem like such a high number. But remember we are talking absolute animals. They would not hesitate one second to kill anybody – even small children. Actually I believe they would not even hesitate to exterminate the entire human race.

People who can do terrorism can do ANYTHING. Beslan was one example.

We have therefore a large number of people who will stop at nothing. They have large financial resources and even political support. They are not all un-intelligent as history has shown. Many terrorists have turned out to be relatively well educated.

The world of today
This fact we must insert into the current factual geo-political situation.

  • Many of the terrorists are already in the West living amongst us and large Muslim populations.
  • They can easily travel into the West
  • There is no allied concerted front against this threat
  • A large percentage of the west – maybe a majority in Europe – are either pacifist or defeatist or both and readily co-operate and fraternatize with the enemy
  • The USSR has broken down and the WMD technologies and scientist are readily available for a relative small price. Even materials can be had.
  • A number of dictator states in the world give or will give refuge and even support to terrorists
  • WMD weapons are proliferated. One Muslim country already has nuclear weapons, Pakistan, and their chief scientist has sold the know-how to at least one more country. One Muslim country, Iran, is publicly and actively seeking nuclear weapons.
  • Any Muslim country is politically unstable and may suffer coup attempts such as the one in Pakistan recently. Who gets to hold the button of WMD is unpredictable.
  • Were it not for the Security Council the UN might as well be Muslim. The UN is thus completely ineffective and might as well not exist.

The frightening possibilities
With enough financial resources the outright sale of a nuclear bomb is not unthinkable. It is thought that corruption in the ex USSR is reaching the equivalent of 50% of the public sector economies. The “sale” of know-how is a fact.

The whereabouts of cold war nuclear scientist, biologists and chemists is not controlled. Furthermore, in the West the most advanced university courses of chemistry, biology and nuclear engineering are readily available for anybody interested and qualified.

Now combine this with the ever increasing technological development. I remember reading about one Australian research group working on a vaccine for a virus. This led to them inadvertently creating an extremely potent virus that killed all mice. The size of the group: 5 scientists!

With time it becomes ever easier and ever more likely that extremely potent weapons will be created. With the resources of a state available there are no limits.


I predict this future scenario
The Islamist terrorists will continue to make attacks. In the next few years we will have at least one major attack in the west and several smaller ones. All with conventional weapons or possibly with primitive low effect WMD.

This will lead to an increase in friction between us and the relatively moderate Muslims living among us. In the west mass internments of Muslims in camps and deportations of Muslims will slowly be established or planned.

Israel will with the more or less clandestine support of the US make pre-emptive strikes against countries like Iran before they manage to produce a nuclear bomb. This will however only delay the fabrication in certain countries and do nothing so ever about countries like Pakistan. Israel can not afford to attack a nuclear power, as it is so small that just one counterstrike could be a catastrophe.

There will be a continued increased radicalization of Muslims and Westerners and more hate against the Jews. In the Muslim world ever more radical states and even more religious craze will appear. Moderate Muslims will have no voice what so ever in the Muslim world.

No sooner than in 5 years and probably no later than within 25 years, in countries like France , civil war like conditions will be constant in metropolitan areas now completely dominated by “youths”. Europeans will simply flee or be expelled and Muslim ghettoes and mini states will be a fact. The police and military forces are themselves infiltrated and the political system as well leading to complete ineffectiveness. At this point Sharia law will be begun to be exercised in the mini states.

Around this time several Muslim states will have WMD and consequently the terrorists will be armed likewise.

Either they will attack one large Western city or several at the same time. I believe the weapon of choice will be nuclear and capable of at least one million casualties.

The cities in most danger are London, New York, Washington and Los Angeles. London seems to me the most probable target.

The answer of the West will be a nuclear attack, perhaps massive, on the Muslim countries. They will answer back but ineffectively unless they at this time already have potent biological weapons. More western cities especially European capitals will feel the attack.

All Muslims in Western countries will be sought interned, expelled or simply exterminated. There will be fighting in the streets and minor civil wars will break out in all western countries with Muslim populations. Major civil war will break out in countries like France. The western world will win. Atrocities will be committed by both sides.

Finally the Muslim world will be disarmed and completely isolated.

By then millions will be dead. Many of them innocents.


What do you think are probable or possible scenarios for the future?

Do you think I am far out? I sure hope I am. But it looks bleak.

I would like to propose that we infidel bloggers start thinking about possible scenarios for the future and present them. Maybe we can thus raise the awareness and possible even avoid worst case.

Can we perhaps generate models with variables that could present possible results. Can we identify some of the many variables and conditions that will lead to some or the other future?

At this point generating, say a computer model, would be a large undertaking. But identifying some of the variables should be easy and thus scenarios much more consolidated and corroborated than my rather simple one should be possible.

Update
WC already has done a scenario in five parts on his blog. It is great writing and a good read. Scary as hell.
World War III: 21 Days in August – Part 1
World War III: 21 Days in August – Part 2
World War III: 21 Days in August – Part 3
World War III: 21 Days in August – Part 4
World War III: 21 Days in August – Part 5

Update 2
Another scenario, this one by, Raymond S. Kraft, and no less scary:
December 7, 2008

Update 3
A number of smaller scenarios on terroris attacks from a classified leaked report developed by the Department of Homeland Security and the Council of Homeland Security:
National Planning Scenarios

I wonder how this was leaked. By now it must be mandatory Al-Qaeda reading.

11 Comments:

At 22/11/06 23:00, Blogger fido said...

Scarey view of the future, best we use our nukes first.

 
At 9/3/08 03:10, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good vision my friend and i must share it with you or atleast some of it but will this happen in 5 years? you sure not 30 years because a lot could change in this time like the reformists in iran getting voted out is a good sign and most of the country ide say 87% say they want a western style democracy so Iran with a Nuclear Weapon right now is dangerous but with a democracy and with relations with the west hopeful but not a givin thing then Iran with a Nuclear Bomb is responsible and ide rather live by Iranian law then russian law and I hope Iran moves more away from Russia. In my opinion the Nuclear attack is New York or London for sure not Los Angeles not Washington. Ide say that most non radical muslims will not convert but rather stand up and fight because they got no other choice but to fight and were seeing that now and even some radicalized muslim countries like Libya are moving more towards the west and are going against countries like Iran and trying to stop them from developing Nuclear weapons by voting for the Sanctions. As for Pakistan i dont see much threat other then extremists getting a hold of nuclear weapons but that problem hits India much worse then us and our threat in the west ide say is radical muslims in our own population which scares me but lets all live in hope that Iran and the majority of the muslim world will yes be stubborn towards the west demands but if they accomplish their goals of Nuclear weapons lets hope they dont use them but rather use it as deterrence like America does so we wont have to have a nuclear war. WAIT!!!!!!!!!! Iran is building missles to target europe's cities! why do that? well i guessits because they see the opportunity to hold them hostage to establish Islamic law and if they dont listen BOOM!!!!!!!!

 
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